Is Kurdistan President Saying The Fight For Independence Isn’t Today, But Sometime In The Future?

We were surprised that WTI closed up today, +$0.12 to $51.99. WTI is up ~$2.50 in the past week primarily driven by the escalation of the Kurdistan/Iraq/Turkey issue in the last week as Iraqi troops took back Kirkuk region oil fields from Kurdish control, and the fear that the fighting could escalate resulting in some disruptions on Kurdistan oil production.  Kurdistan President Barzani’s statement (posted on Rudaw news ~10am mountain LINK) is a must read and we thought it would have led to some of this Kurdistan premium being given back today.  Barzani’s statement should reassure markets that the risk of civil war is effectively zero and, more importantly, it sounds like Kurdistan realizes that the time to press for full independence is not now, but sometime in the future.  Barzani is clearly signaling the Kurds have to fix their internal issues and have unity on the Kurdish side before they can move on the independence mandate/goal.  Plus the fact that there is an agreement between Kurdistan and Iraq to move back to previously agreed to lines should provide comfort that Iraq will sign off on Kurdistan oil exports as requested by Turkey.  These two events should reduce the Kurdistan geopolitical risk premium in oil. Continue reading “Is Kurdistan President Saying The Fight For Independence Isn’t Today, But Sometime In The Future?”