“New” Technology Is Working And/Or Increasing In Application To Increase Oil Recovery From Shale/Tight Oil

This week’s final US sellside energy conferences before the summer did not disappoint anyone who was looking to see what “new” technology applications are likely to be highlighted when energy conferences restart in September.  This weekend’s Sunday Energy Tidbits memo will cover a range of non-technology sector insights from this week’s presentations including heavy oil differentials, service sector cost inflation, lower rig counts in H2/17 vs H1/17, drilled uncompleted wells, etc.  But we wanted to highlight three technology developments that aren’t just bigger and tighter fracks, but are items pointing to why US shale/tight oil could continue to surprise to the upside in 2018 –  finer proppants, scientifically engineered gas, and tank/cube development. Continue reading ““New” Technology Is Working And/Or Increasing In Application To Increase Oil Recovery From Shale/Tight Oil”

$45 Is The New $50, But US Oil Rigs Should Start To Decline If WTI Stays ~$45 For A Few More Weeks

We expect to see US oil rigs start to level off and decline this summer if WTI stays ~$45 for a few more weeks.  A weaker US$ this week has helped WTI bounce modestly off its bottom to $44.80 today, but we believe it needs to point to the higher $40s to prevent US oil rigs from declining.  US oil rig levels ultimately respond to oil prices.  The data shows the R2 correlation has been 0.959 for US oil rigs, on a 12 week lag, to WTI oil prices.  This suggests that US oil rigs should start to respond soon to the recent drop in oil prices.  Plus we believe the comments from quality shale/tight oil producers at the US sellside conference this week support the view that $45 oil is the price starting to impact drilling levels.  US oil production should still keep increasing, but a decline in US oil rigs will help with the investor tone to oil later in 2017. Continue reading “$45 Is The New $50, But US Oil Rigs Should Start To Decline If WTI Stays ~$45 For A Few More Weeks”

“Many” Montney Players Looking At Cheniere’s GoM LNG Vs Waiting For BC LNG

“Many” Montney producers reportedly want to send gas to Cheniere’s Gulf of Mexico LNG. No one should be surprised to hear that more Montney players are looking to move natural gas to Cheniere’s Gulf of Mexico LNG projects.  Yesterday, Upstream reported  [LINK] reported that Cheniere Energy was “ in talks with more Montney producers to secure supply deals for its US Gulf Coast liquefaction facilities, a company official said on Wednesday.  Chief commercial officer Anatol Feygin did not disclose how many Montney operators Cheniere is speaking with, but said the company is in discussions with “many players”.   This follows Feygin’s March 29, 2017 Bloomberg TV interview [LINK]  that it had completed its first supply deal with a Montney producer, later revealed to be Seven Generations.

Continue reading ““Many” Montney Players Looking At Cheniere’s GoM LNG Vs Waiting For BC LNG”